By Mark McGillivray (eds.)
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Extra resources for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals
WHO (World Health Organization) (2007) Global TB Database. Geneva. World Bank (2007) World Development Indicators, 2007. Washington, DC. 2 Projecting Progress Towards the Millennium Development Goals Howard White and Nina Blöndal Introduction Since the adoption of the International Development Targets, and their successor Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), a growing number of publications have presented estimates of development outcomes in 2015, the target year for most of the goals. What the majority of these projections show is that the developing world as a whole is ‘off track’ with respect to most targets.
Neither the goal for income poverty reduction nor that for lower mortality will be met in the vast majority of countries. Attaining universal primary education is the one area where the goal looks achievable in many countries, though by no means all. The chapter warns, however, that these projections are based on various assumptions, including the assumption of business as usual and that various adverse shocks may result in far worse scenarios. Chapter 3 examines aid and the MDGs in terms of health, wealth and education.
Specific details of the projections are as follows: • Income poverty is modelled as a function of income growth alone, • • • • with the elasticity varying according the level of initial inequality. No allowance is made for the fact that the elasticity also changes over time; while this would be a more realistic approach, too little information is available to make such estimates in a sufficiently informed manner. 5 per cent per annum. These elasticities are taken from a review of papers on the cross-country determinants of under-5 mortality (for example Hanmer et al.
Achieving the Millennium Development Goals by Mark McGillivray (eds.)